🚨 MAJOR MARKET SHAKE-UP: Fed Hawks Circle, AI Chips Soar, Metals Go Parabolic

Trump Administration Signals Rate Cut Push While Precious Metals Hit Multi-Year Highs | Your Complete Game Plan for November 13, 2025

Author

Shy Unabia
November 12, 2025

⚡ KEY THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE THE BELL

  • Silver surges +4% to $53.31/oz while gold breaks above $4,200 in historic rally 📈

  • AMD shares rocket +8% on aggressive AI chip guidance targeting Nvidia's dominance 🚀

  • Fed officials split: Bostic stays hawkish on inflation, Miran questions data reliability ⚖️

  • White House advisor Hassett openly campaigns for Fed Chair role, promises aggressive rate cuts 🏛️

  • Government shutdown resolution backed by Trump Administration could impact Q4 GDP 📊

  • Datacenter stocks under pressure as debt concerns trigger sector-wide selloff 💥

  • Crypto market bleeds -$120B in 4-hour span amid broader risk-off sentiment 📉

  • Treasury yields steady as $42B 10-year auction shows moderate demand 📑

📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT - NOVEMBER 12, 2025 CLOSE

Major Indices

  • S&P 500 (SPY): $683.68 (+0.10%)

  • Nasdaq (QQQ): $620.88 (-0.11%)

  • Russell 2000 (IWM): $244.17 (-0.03%)

  • Dow Jones (DIA): $483.36 (+0.82%)

Futures (After Hours - November 12)

  • ES_F: Choppy action holding above weekly value support

  • Key Level: 6877 must reclaim to see 6888, 6893, 6899+

  • Support Zones: 6857, 6848, 6832

🔥 HOTTEST SECTORS & MONEY ROTATION

BULLISH SECTORS 💚

  1. Healthcare (+1.56%) - Leading sector performance

  2. Materials (+1.12%) - Precious metals driving strength

  3. Financials (+0.96%) - XLF showing technical strength

  4. Technology (+0.17%) - AI chips offsetting broader weakness

BEARISH SECTORS 🔴

  1. Energy (-1.07%) - Significant underperformance

  2. Communication Services (-0.53%) - Meta can't catch a break

  3. Consumer Discretionary (-0.44%) - Affordability concerns persist

  4. Real Estate (-0.36%) - Rate uncertainty weighing

MAJOR MONEY ROTATION DETECTED 🔄

OUT OF: Datacenter infrastructure plays (NBIS, ORCL, IREN down 2-3%)
INTO: Precious metals (GLD, SLV, HL), traditional value plays, defensive positioning

🏛️ WHITE HOUSE IMPACT: HASSETT'S BOLD FED GAMBIT

MARKET-MOVING STATEMENTS FROM WH SENIOR ADVISER HASSETT:

Economic Outlook

  • GDP Forecast: Q4 GDP between 1.5%-2%, full year ~2%

  • Government Shutdown: Will impact Q4 GDP negatively

  • Deficit Reduction: Projects $600B deficit drop this fiscal year

    • 1/3 from tariff revenue

    • 1/3 from tax revenue growth

    • 1/3 from spending cuts

Fed Policy Positioning 🎯

CRITICAL MARKET CATALYST: Hassett openly campaigning for Fed Chair role

Key Quotes:

  • "If I'm at FOMC, I'm more likely to move to cut rates, while Powell less likely"

  • "I agree with Trump that rates can be a lot lower"

  • "Fed more likely to do 25 basis point cut" (December meeting)

  • "If asked to be Fed chair, I'll do it" - Opening line for December drama

  • "I could be ready to work right away, have Fed experience" (spent 5 years there)

Inflation & Trade Policy

  • "Supply-side policies will allow growth without inflation"

  • "Inflation isn't all the way where you want it to be"

  • "Any tariff cost impacts are level-adjust effect, not inflation"

  • "Expect to see big reduction in price of imported goods from China"

  • "The rate of food increases is down to almost nothing"

Housing & Mortgages

  • 50-year mortgage proposal: "Could make it easier to get a home"

  • Trump hasn't decided yet on implementation

MARKET IMPLICATIONS: Clear divergence emerging between White House (dovish) and Fed leadership (cautious). This sets up potential December FOMC drama and could drive volatility in rate-sensitive sectors.

📰 FED COMMUNICATIONS: HAWKISH VS DOVISH SPLIT

Atlanta Fed's Bostic (HAWKISH) 🦅

  • "Favors keeping Fed funds rate steady until clear evidence of inflation moving toward 2%"

  • "Firms expect to raise prices well into 2026, by substantially more than 2%"

  • "See little to suggest price pressures will dissipate before mid-to-late 2026"

  • "Moving policy lower risks feeding 'inflation beast'"

  • "Tariffs have had a role in buoying prices" but haven't caused severe spike

  • Retiring February 28, 2026 (end of 5-year term)

Fed's Miran (DOVISH) 🕊️

  • "Fed policy is too restrictive"

  • "Should not take inflation data at face value"

  • "Elevated inflation is due mainly to the measurement process"

  • "Stablecoin impact could be 30%-60% of 2000s savings glut"

  • "QE maybe was 'over-used' in past"

TRADING EDGE: This Fed split creates December rate cut uncertainty. Markets pricing 25bps cut, but Bostic's hawkishness vs. White House pressure = volatility opportunity.

🤖 AI CHIP WARS: AMD CHALLENGES NVIDIA'S THRONE

AMD's Aggressive Analyst Day Targets 🚀

Stock: AMD - $237.52 (verified Nov 11 close)

Growth Projections (Next 3-5 Years):

  • 80% annual growth in AI chip sales

  • Targeting double-digit market share by 2030

  • Projects $100B+ in AI revenue within 5 years

  • Total addressable market: $1 trillion

CEO Lisa Su: "AI growth demands more computing power... rising AI adoption and productivity gains justify continued investment"

Market Reaction: Shares up +8% Wednesday to $237.52

Trading Strategy:

  • Entry Zone: $230-$235 (pullback opportunity)

  • Target 1: $260 (+9.5% from current)

  • Target 2: $285 (+20%)

  • Stop Loss: $215 (-9.5%)

  • Catalyst: Q4 earnings (February 2026) and AI chip revenue ramps

NVIDIA Under Pressure Despite Strength

Stock: NVDA - $193.16 (verified Nov 11 close)

Headwinds:

  • SoftBank sold entire $5.83B stake in October

  • Down -2.96% on Tuesday despite strong fundamentals

  • Earnings Nov 19, 2025 - Critical catalyst ahead

Bullish Case:

  • Analysts' average target: $217.93 (+12.8%)

  • Q2 data center revenue: $41.1B (+93% YoY)

  • 42 analysts rate "Strong Buy"

  • Dominant 90%+ AI chip market share

Trading Strategy:

  • Current: $193.16 - Wait for earnings clarity

  • Support: $188-$190 (buying opportunity)

  • Resistance: $205-$210

  • Post-earnings target: $220-$230 if beats

  • Risk: Competition from AMD, DeepSeek concerns

💰 PRECIOUS METALS: THE PARABOLIC RALLY CONTINUES

Silver's Historic Breakout 🥈

Price: $53.31/oz (+4.3% on Nov 12)

Catalysts:

  • Breaking through psychological $50 barrier

  • Critical mineral status (USGS 2025 list)

  • Green energy demand accelerating

  • Industrial consumption growing

  • Some analysts targeting $100/oz if momentum continues

ETF Play: SLV (iShares Silver Trust)

  • Seeing massive IV surge (+16% IV30)

  • Call buyers across multiple expirations

  • Strong rebound from cloud support

Trading Strategy:

  • SLV Entry: On dips to $45-$46

  • Target 1: $50 (+8-10%)

  • Target 2: $55 (+18-20%)

  • Options: March 2026 $50-$55 call spreads

Gold Approaches $4,200 Mark 🥇

Price: $4,131-$4,200/oz range

Drivers:

  • Safe-haven demand amid government shutdown drama

  • Fed rate cut expectations boosting appeal

  • Central bank accumulation continuing

  • Tether adding +1 ton per week (104 tonnes total = $12.9B)

  • Dollar strength concerns

ETF Play: GLD - $378.01 (verified Nov 11 close)

  • Gold miners (GDX) up +125% YTD

  • Physical gold funds +40-60% YTD

  • Institutional flows: $65B into gold ETFs in 2025

Trading Strategy:

  • GLD Entry: $370-$375 (on pullbacks)

  • Target 1: $400 (+5.8%)

  • Target 2: $425 (+12.4%)

  • Miners (GDX, HL): Leveraged plays for aggressive traders

Sympathy Plays:

  • HL (Hecla Mining): Repeat call buying, Put/Call ratio 3428/21k

  • GOLD (Barrick Gold): Major mining giant benefiting

  • NEM (Newmont): Largest gold producer

💻 DATACENTER DEBT CRISIS: OPPORTUNITY OR TRAP?

The Selloff Explained

From Discord Analyst (@amitisinvesting):

"The street is obviously concerned about the datacenter trade. Oracle was at $230 before Q2 with RPO +450%. They went to $350 in 24 hours. The stock is now below $230. What changed? They issued $40B of corporate bonds... and told the street they don't care about FCF because ROI on capex growth matters more."

Affected Names (All Down 2-3%)

  1. ORCL (Oracle): Back below $230 after spiking to $350

  2. NBIS (Nebius): Debt concerns, dilution fears - was $93.90

  3. CRWV (CoreWeave): Debt-equity ratio scrutiny

  4. IREN (Iris Energy): BTC miner turned AI/HPC - unit economics questioned

The Contrarian Case 💡

"I think you pick the best one and DCA, but you wait for core levels. If Nebius gets back to $70…the entire MSFT deal is erased. It'd be VERY attractive at those levels."

Trading Strategy - Patient Approach

NBIS (Nebius):

  • Current: ~$94

  • Compelling Entry: $70-$75 (-25% from current)

  • Target: $120-$130 (+28-38% from $94)

  • Thesis: Exceptional execution, MSFT partnership, AI datacenter mega-trend

Key Insight: "Exceptional execution makes dips buy-able if you believe in the broader macro AI datacenter trend" - but debt concerns are REAL short-term headwind.

🏦 TREASURY & CREDIT MARKETS

10-Year Note Auction Results

  • Size: $42 billion

  • High Yield: 4.074% (tailed by 0.6 bps)

  • Bid-to-Cover: 2.43 (vs. 2.48 prior)

  • Awards: 97.52% at high

  • Demand Breakdown:

    • Primary dealers: 10.45%

    • Direct: 22.55%

    • Indirect: 67%

Interpretation: Moderate demand, slightly weaker than previous auction. Market pricing in December rate cut uncertainty.

Corporate Debt Milestone

  • US high-grade bond sales TOP 2024's total

  • Now 2nd highest of all-time

  • Signals strong corporate borrowing appetite despite higher rates

🏛️ TRUMP ADMINISTRATION POLICY UPDATES

Government Shutdown Resolution

  • Status: Trump Administration backs bill ending shutdown

  • Trump statement: "Would sign" the resolution

  • Vote: House vote scheduled for 7pm EST November 12

  • GDP Impact: Hassett warns shutdown will impact Q4 GDP

Trade & Tariff Strategy

Hassett on Trade:

  • "Negotiations are an ongoing process"

  • "Discussing changes with food products"

  • Considering section 301 and 122 tariffs as fallback if Supreme Court rules against

  • "The emergency case is really solid"

  • "Tariff policy needs enforcement against transshipment"

Political Appointments

New Judicial Nominees:

  • Aaron Peterson: District Court for Alaska

  • David "Clay" Fowlkes: Western District of Arkansas

  • Nick Ganjei: Southern District of Texas - Immigration enforcement hawk

💎 CRYPTO MARKET: $120B BLOODBATH

Bitcoin Analysis

Price: $103,000-$105,000 range (Nov 12, 2025)

Technicals:

  • Bounced from $98,953 support

  • Testing $105,399 (23.6% Fib level)

  • Key resistance: $109,000-$110,000

  • 200-day EMA near $108,958

Futures Data:

  • Open interest: $68.96 billion (elevated)

  • Spot outflows: -$82.29M (Nov 11) - Profit-taking evident

Market Event:

  • Crypto market erased -$120 billion in market cap in 4-hour span (Nov 12 afternoon)

  • Risk-off sentiment spreading from equities

Trading Strategy:

  • Support levels: $104K, $103K, $100,288

  • Critical base: $98,953

  • Upside targets: $109K, $112K, $115K

  • Bias: Choppy, wait for clear direction above $109K or below $100K

Altcoin Pressure

  • ETH, SOL, ADA: All down -2% to -4.5%

  • Correlation with Nasdaq continues

  • Wait for BTC clarity before alt entries

📊 SECTOR-SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES

Healthcare Leading (+1.56%) 🏥

Why It's Hot:

  • Defensive rotation amid uncertainty

  • Strong pharma rally noted

  • RFK Jr. pushing "different questions" on health policy

Actionable Plays:

  • XLV (Health Care Select SPDR): $150.44, defensive positioning

  • VHT (Vanguard Healthcare): $280.73

  • Watch for biotech specific catalysts

Materials Strength (+1.12%) 🏗️

Drivers:

  • Precious metals surge

  • Industrial demand stable

  • Infrastructure spending expectations

Financials Resilience (+0.96%) 💳

XLF Technicals:

  • Showing strength per Discord flow

  • Rate cut expectations beneficial

  • Strong bank earnings backdrop

Energy Weakness (-1.07%) ⚡

Headwinds:

  • Oil prices under pressure

  • Natural gas plays exception: Expand Energy (EXE) seeing 2000 March $140 calls bought at $2.45

📈 OPTIONS FLOW HIGHLIGHTS

Heavy Call Buying

  1. NVDA: $5M+ in December 19 $205 calls

  2. HL (Hecla Mining): Repeat buying, Put/Call 3428/21k

  3. GLD: December $400/$415 call spreads (106,500 contracts adjusted higher)

  4. SLV: IV surge +16%, calls across expirations

Put Buying (Hedges)

  1. BE (Bloom Energy): $2M in January 2026 $55 puts

  2. CARR (Carrier): Q4 volume down 40%, residential weakness

Unusual Activity

  • SPX: Negative gamma up to 6900 (can move quickly through zone)

  • Gold $GLD: 114,400 December $390/$405 call spreads at $3.11

🎯 TOP TRADE IDEAS FOR NOVEMBER 13

HIGHEST CONVICTION BULLISH 📈

1. PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX (Rating: 9.5/10)

  • GLD Entry: $370-$375 | Target: $400 (+6.7%)

  • SLV Entry: $45-$46 | Target: $50 (+8-10%)

  • HL (Hecla Mining) Entry: Watch for dip below $10 | Target: $12-$13

  • Catalyst: Safe-haven demand, Fed cuts, industrial demand

  • Risk: Dollar strength, rate hike surprise

2. AMD SEMICONDUCTOR LEADERSHIP (Rating: 8.5/10)

  • Entry Zone: $230-$235 (on pullback from $237.52)

  • Target 1: $260 (+9.5%)

  • Target 2: $285 (+20%)

  • Stop: $215

  • Catalyst: AI chip ramp, Q4 earnings, market share gains vs NVDA

  • Options: March 2026 $240/$260 call spreads

3. NVDA POST-EARNINGS SETUP (Rating: 8/10)

  • Current: $193.16 - WAIT for earnings Nov 19

  • Entry if beats: $195-$200

  • Target: $220-$230

  • Stop: $185

  • Catalyst: Earnings could surprise, still dominant in AI

  • Risk: AMD competition narrative, valuation concerns

CONTRARIAN OPPORTUNITIES 💡

4. DATACENTER INFRASTRUCTURE - PATIENT ACCUMULATION (Rating: 7/10)

  • NBIS Entry: Only at $70-$75 (currently $94)

  • ORCL Entry: $215-$220 range

  • Target: 25-30% bounce on debt concerns easing

  • Timeframe: 3-6 months

  • Thesis: Selling overdone, AI demand real, execution matters

5. XLF FINANCIALS STRENGTH (Rating: 7.5/10)

  • Entry: $150-$151

  • Target: $158-$160 (+5-6%)

  • Catalyst: Rate cuts beneficial, strong earnings, technical breakout

SWING TRADE SETUPS 🔄

6. SOFI NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS (Rating: 8/10)

  • Stock hit new ATHs per Discord alerts

  • Entry: On first pullback to $15.50-$16

  • Target: $18-$19

  • Catalyst: Fintech momentum, rate cut beneficiary

7. NFLX PRE-SPLIT STRENGTH (Rating: 7/10)

  • Running into stock split per Discord

  • Entry: Momentum continuation

  • Target: Split ratio TBD - typically bullish

  • Watch: $750-$800 zone

BEARISH/HEDGING PLAYS 🔻

8. ENERGY SECTOR WEAKNESS

  • XLE: Down -1.07%, underperforming

  • Consider XLE puts or USO puts as portfolio hedge

  • Target: 3-5% further downside if oil breaks support

9. COMMUNICATION SERVICES PRESSURE

  • META: "Can't catch a break" per sentiment

  • Sector down -0.53%

  • Wait for stabilization before entries

🌍 GLOBAL & GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS

International Headlines

  • Macron: "The war of tomorrow will begin in space"

  • Disney: Eyes ESPN expansion in Asia for streaming boost

  • BP: In active talks with Stonepeak over Castrol sale

  • Google (GOOGL): EU readies fresh investigation into news publisher rankings

China Trade

  • Hassett: "Expect big reduction in price of imported goods from China"

  • Trade negotiations ongoing

  • Tariff policy remains fluid

📅 UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Economic Reports - November 13

  • CPI Data: Market expecting cooler inflation print

  • Jobless Claims: Labor market health check

  • Any Fed speakers

Earnings This Week

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): November 19 - MAJOR catalyst

  • Watch for guidance on Blackwell chip demand

Political Events

  • Government shutdown vote (7pm EST Nov 12)

  • Epstein files meeting (Bondi, Blanche, Patel)

💡 DCG TRADING WISDOM

From The Mastermind

On Market Psychology: "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money" - applicable to corporate debt concerns in datacenter space

On Volatility: "Options were created in the 1970s to hedge against these risks... degree of crash will never be the same" - @3PeaksTrading on market structure

On Precious Metals: "What a bullish trend this year. You guys should have bought more Gold Bars from $COST?" - @ripster47

On Market Timing: "Something like $ONON rarely makes a good day one gap up trade. The chart is not setup right. It's mean reverting." - @BornInvestor on patience

🎓 EDUCATIONAL INSIGHT: DEBT VS GROWTH

Key Learning from Oracle/Datacenter Selloff:

Companies prioritizing growth over FCF = short-term pain, potential long-term gain IF execution delivers. Market punishes debt when:

  1. ROI uncertain

  2. Interest rates elevated

  3. Competitive threats emerge

BUT rewards aggressive capex when:

  1. Market share gains evident

  2. Revenue ramps materialize

  3. Unit economics improve

Lesson: Wait for technical confirmation before catching falling knives.

⚙️ PORTFOLIO STRATEGY FOR NOVEMBER 13

  • 30%: Precious metals (GLD, SLV, miners) - defensive + upside

  • 25%: AI chip leaders (AMD primary, NVDA post-earnings)

  • 20%: Cash - wait for datacenter entry points

  • 15%: Financials/Healthcare - defensive rotation

  • 10%: Crypto exposure (BTC only, wait for clarity)

Risk Management

  • Stop losses: 7-10% on all positions

  • Position sizing: Max 5% per trade

  • Hedge: VIX calls or SPY puts if market breaks support

🔮 THURSDAY MORNING GAME PLAN

Pre-Market (7-9:30 AM EST)

  1. Watch CPI data release (if scheduled)

  2. Monitor futures - Are we holding 6877 on ES?

  3. Check precious metals - Gold holding $4,100?

  4. Crypto stability - BTC above or below $104K?

Market Open (9:30-10:30 AM EST)

  1. AMD: Watch for profit-taking or momentum continuation

  2. NVDA: Pre-earnings positioning ahead of Nov 19

  3. GLD/SLV: Any pullback = buying opportunity

  4. XLF: Breaking out or fading?

Mid-Day (10:30 AM-2 PM EST)

  1. Sector rotation: Does healthcare leadership hold?

  2. Energy: Further weakness = shorting opportunity

  3. Volume analysis: Confirming morning moves

Power Hour (3-4 PM EST)

  1. Options expiry flows: November weeklies

  2. Closing prints: Institutional positioning

  3. After-hours: Any Fed speakers or political news

🚀 FINAL THOUGHTS & COMMUNITY EDGE

Market Theme: Rotation from growth/tech into defensives + commodities while navigating Fed policy uncertainty and White House pressure for rate cuts.

Key Insight: The divergence between Hassett (dovish, political) and Bostic (hawkish, data-dependent) creates December FOMC drama. This uncertainty = opportunity for nimble traders.

Contrarian Take: Datacenter selloff creates 3-6 month accumulation zone for patient capital in highest-quality names.

Momentum Play: Precious metals have room to run on safe-haven demand + industrial consumption.

Risk Factor: Crypto $120B wipeout shows broader risk-off potential - size positions accordingly.

🤝 JOIN THE DCG COMMAND CENTER COMMUNITY

Trading isn't about getting rich quick - it's about consistency, education, and community.

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Our traders execute every day using real-time data, clear strategies, and disciplined risk management. No hype, just results.

⚠️ DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only. All trading involves risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author may hold positions in securities mentioned.

📬 TOMORROW'S PREVIEW

Watch for:

  • CPI inflation data reaction

  • Government shutdown vote results

  • Fed speakers (if any)

  • NVDA pre-earnings positioning

  • Precious metals momentum continuation

  • Crypto market stabilization attempts

Market likely to:

  • Trade choppy around Fed policy uncertainty

  • Continue precious metals strength

  • Show sector rotation themes

  • Build volatility ahead of NVDA earnings

Stay sharp, trade smart, and let the market come to you.

- DCG Command Center

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