🔥 *ALERT** DCG Weekly Trading Plan Week of February 3rd - February 7th, 2025 🔴 Market Volatility, Earnings, and Crypto Trends.

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February 3rd at 6pm pst We Are Having Our Mastermind Zoom Call For Mastermind Members - Will Discuss The Best Plays For February 2025 - Best Swing Periods, Best Crypto Plays, Best Ways To Profit In February 2025.

⚠️ Hot Market Overview

• Trade War Impact: New tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China, have officially begun. These tariffs are expected to weigh heavily on tech stocks, particularly those reliant on global supply chains (e.g., semiconductors, EVs). The U.S. economy is less exposed to these tariffs compared to Mexico and Canada, but the ripple effects could still impact sectors like energy, manufacturing, and consumer goods.

• Economic Data: Key reports this week include ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM Services PMI, and the January jobs report. These will heavily influence market sentiment, especially regarding Fed rate expectations.

• Earnings Season: Major tech companies like Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Tesla (TSLA) are reporting earnings. AI and cloud growth will be key themes.

• Crypto Market: Bitcoin (BTC) remains bullish, supported by institutional adoption and pro-crypto policies. However, meme coins like Trump’s STRUMP and Melania’s coin are highly speculative and volatile.

• S&P 500 (SPX) closed at 6,101, holding key resistance at 6,100.

• Market Structure: The uptrend remains intact, with an upside target of 6,350 if resistance breaks.

• Key Support Levels:

  • 6,033 (8-MA)

  • 5,960 (21-MA)

• Volatility Stop Level: 6,018 (watch for sustained movement above or below for trend confirmation).

• Macroeconomic Risks:

  • New tariffs: 25% on Canada & Mexico, 10% on China, impacting energy, tech, and manufacturing.

  • Jobs Data Sensitivity: Markets will react to labor market reports, influencing Fed rate expectations.

Market Sentiment & Seasonality

• AAII Sentiment: Bullish sentiment rose to 43.4%, bearish sentiment fell to 29.4%.

• CNN Fear & Greed Index: 47 (neutral), up from 38 last week.

• VIX/VXV Ratio: 0.86, indicating low fear.

• Seasonality Insights:

  • First two trading days of February show a historically strong bullish bias.

  • Second half of February tends to be weaker.

  • Nasdaq outperforms early in the month.

✅ Trading Plan by Day

Monday, February 3

📊 Seasonality: Historically strong bullish day (82.6% win rate). 🛠️ Key Economic Events:

📌Tuesday, February 4

📊 Seasonality: Neutral (60.3% win rate). 🛠️ Key Economic Events:

• 7:00 AM: JOLTS Job Openings

• 1:15 PM: Fed member Daly speaks 📊 Earnings Watch:

• Alphabet (GOOGL), Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), AMD, Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), PayPal (PYPL), Chipotle (CMG), Mondelez (MDLZ). 🔥 Trading Strategy:

• Strong JOLTS = Rate hike fears = Pressure on tech stocks.

• Weak JOLTS = Fed pivot optimism = Bullish tech (AMD, GOOG, PYPL).

• GOOGL earnings: Focus on AI & cloud revenue. 🤖 AI Sentiment:

• AI-focused growth stocks will react to Alphabet’s earnings.

• AMD earnings impact entire semiconductor sector.

📌Wednesday, February 5

📊 Seasonality: Weakest day of the week (39.7% win rate). 🛠️ Key Economic Events:

📌Thursday, February 6

📊 Seasonality: Bullish bias (63.5% win rate). 🛠️ Key Economic Events:

📌Friday, February 7

📊 Seasonality: Moderate bullish bias (54.0% win rate). 🛠️ Key Economic Events:

• 5:30 AM: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

• 5:30 AM: Unemployment Rate 📊 Earnings Watch:

• Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Kimco Realty (KIM). 🔥 Trading Strategy:

• Weaker jobs data = Rate cuts speculation → Bullish growth & tech.

• Stronger jobs data = Bond yields spike → Pressure on growth stocks.

• Watch for sharp pre-market volatility. 🤖 AI Sentiment:

• NFP & unemployment data will dictate AI and tech trends for next week.

📌Final Takeaway

• Early week strength → Midweek volatility → Late-week jobs data-driven moves.

• Tech & AI remain key leaders, but watch economic data closely.

• Seasonality favors early February rallies, but cautious into mid-month.

• Risk management is key; remain flexible.

🚀Crypto Market Trading Plan

Key Themes for the Week

1. Bitcoin (BTC): Remains bullish, supported by institutional adoption and pro-crypto policies.
   Key levels: Support at 97,200, Resistance at 101,041.

2. AI & DeFi Tokens: Watch for developments in AI-driven projects like INJ and ONDO. DeFi tokens could see volatility around the "Hey Anon" beta launch.

3. Meme Coins: Highly speculative and volatile. Avoid unless you have a high-risk tolerance.

🔥 Market Sentiment & Trend Outlook

• 📉 Short-Term Trend: Bearish pullback with rejection from resistance at $101K.

• 🔴 Momentum: Weakening – Strong bearish trend forming.

• 🔵 Overbought/Oversold Indicator: BTC approaching the oversold zone.

🚀Daily Trading Plan

Monday, February 3

Tuesday, February 4

• Key Events:

  • JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM)

  • Injective AI Agent Hackathon (All Day)

• Trading Strategy:

  • Bullish: Strong JOLTS could boost BTC and AI tokens (INJ, ONDO).

  • Bearish: Weak JOLTS may lead to rate cut speculation, benefiting crypto.

Wednesday, February 5

• Key Events:

  • ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 AM)

  • ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM)

  • Treasury Refunding Announcement (2:00 PM)

• Trading Strategy:

  • Bullish: Weak ADP data could lead to a rally in BTC and AI tokens.

  • Bearish: Strong ADP may pressure crypto as bond yields rise.

Thursday, February 6

• Key Events:

  • Jobless Claims (8:30 AM)

  • EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30 AM)

  • Ondo Summit (All Day)

• Trading Strategy:

  • Bullish: Rising jobless claims could boost BTC and AI tokens.

  • Bearish: Strong jobless claims may pressure crypto.

Friday, February 7

• Key Events:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (7:30 AM)

  • Unemployment Rate (7:30 AM)

  • Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM)

• Trading Strategy:

  • Bullish: Weak NFP data could lead to a rally in BTC and AI tokens.

  • Bearish: Strong NFP may pressure crypto as bond yields rise.

🚀Key Bitcoin Events & Catalysts This Week

⚡ Bitcoin Trading Strategy

✅ Bullish Scenario:

• If BTC reclaims $101,041, look for a move toward $104,800 resistance.

• Dips to $97,200 or lower could be buy-the-dip opportunities for long-term holds.

❌ Bearish Scenario:

• If BTC loses $97,200 support, expect a drop to $95K or lower.

• Watch for increased selling volume near resistance levels.

📢 ⚠️ Risk Warning:

• BTC remains highly volatile, with a bearish structure forming – manage risk properly!

💡 Final Takeaway:
Bitcoin remains below key resistance at $101K, showing bearish momentum but still holding critical support levels. Watch for breakout confirmations or deeper pullbacks before entering positions.

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