AI DCG Weekly Market Brief – March 24–28, 2025 - Final Week Fireworks: Oversold Bounce or the Eye of the Storm?

Markets enter the last week of March gripped by uncertainty, bearish undercurrents, and geopolitical pressure as traders brace for tariff headlines, inflation data, and a lack of sector leadership. All eyes on April 2nd — ‘Liberation Day’ or Liquidity Trap?

Author

Jamar James
March 23, 2025

WEEKLY TRADING PLAN: MARCH 24-28, 2025

MARKET OVERVIEW

The market is showing a cautiously bullish stance after recovering from correction territory. The S&P 500 has reclaimed its position above the 200-day moving average and is now testing the 50-day MA as resistance. Sentiment is improving, with the Fear & Greed Index rising to 45 (Neutral) from 21 the previous week.

KEY MARKET CATALYSTS THIS WEEK

  • Tariff Tensions: April 2 deadline approaching with ongoing US-Canada/Mexico trade war

  • PCE Inflation Data: Friday's release is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge

  • Q1 Rebalancing: End-of-quarter flows may impact market movements

  • CoreWeave IPO: Potential impact on AI/Tech sector

  • Fed Speakers: Multiple appearances throughout the week

SECTOR OUTLOOK

Bullish Sectors (65-70% Probability)

  1. Technology (XLK): AI momentum continues, semiconductor strength

  2. Energy (XLE): Relative strength, oil price stabilization

  3. Financials (XLF): Benefiting from higher rates, strong earnings

Bearish Sectors (60-65% Probability)

  1. Consumer Discretionary (XLY): Weakening consumer sentiment, retail pressure

  2. Real Estate (XLRE): Interest rate sensitivity, commercial real estate concerns

  3. Utilities (XLU): Rate sensitivity, rotation to growth sectors

KEY LEVELS FOR S&P 500 FUTURES ($ES)

Support Zones

  • Major: 5706, 5698, 5692, 5650, 5620-5625

  • Deep: 5525, 5500-5505, 5469

Resistance Zones

  • Immediate: 5720, 5725, 5735

  • Major: 5747-5755 (megaphone top), 5782, 5795

  • Extended: 5809, 5824, 5850-5852

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