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- #1 TRADING NEWSLETTER FOR DAY TRADERS - "PEACE TALKS & POWELL'S FINAL HOUR" Monday, August 18th, 2025 Trading Week
#1 TRADING NEWSLETTER FOR DAY TRADERS - "PEACE TALKS & POWELL'S FINAL HOUR" Monday, August 18th, 2025 Trading Week
Jamar James
August 18, 2025
In partnership with
🎯 WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
The 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held August 21-23, with the theme "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy." This represents the most important Fed week of the year, with Powell's Friday speech historically producing massive volatility and directional market moves.
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🎯 KEY THINGS TO KNOW FOR THIS TRADING SESSION
GEOPOLITICAL BOMBSHELL: Trump hosts Zelensky + ALL major European leaders (Macron, Merz, Starmer, Meloni, von der Leyen) for Ukraine peace talks today
EARNINGS AVALANCHE: Retail giants WMT, HD, TGT, LOW report this week amid consumer spending concerns
POWELL'S SWAN SONG: Fed Chair's likely final Jackson Hole speech Friday (Aug 22) - 85% odds of September rate cut
CRYPTO CORRECTION: ETH breaks below $4,300, $100M in liquidations overnight as Asia selling pressure mounts
FUTURES GREEN: Dow +57, S&P +0.14%, Nasdaq +0.21% as markets digest Ukraine developments
🌍 TRUMP MOMENTUM TRADES & GEOPOLITICAL CATALYST
Historic Peace Summit - Monday's Market Catalyst 🏛️
European leaders including France's Macron, Germany's Merz, UK's Starmer, Italy's Meloni, and EU's von der Leyen will join Ukrainian President Zelensky for talks at the White House with Trump today. This follows Trump's Alaska summit with Putin where the Russian leader demanded Ukraine give up Donbas region in exchange for freezing current front lines.
TRADING IMPLICATIONS:
DEFENSE SECTOR ROTATION: If peace talks progress → $LMT, $RTX, $NOC could face selling pressure
ENERGY PLAYS: Peace deal could pressure oil → Watch $XLE for weakness, opportunities in $USO puts
SAFE HAVEN FLOWS: Gold $GLD, Yen $FXY could weaken on peace optimism
EUROPEAN EXPOSURE: $VGK, $FEZ could rally on reduced geopolitical risk
Trump's Conditions Preview Market Impact 📊
Trump suggested Ukraine would need to give up Crimea and NATO membership aspirations, signaling compromise framework that could:
Boost Risk Assets: Small caps $IWM, emerging markets $EEM
Pressure Defense Contractors: Especially Ukraine-exposed names
Support Commodities: Industrial metals on reconstruction theme
📈 BULLISH SECTORS & HOT MOMENTUM PLAYS
🏪 RETAIL EARNINGS SUPREMACY
Biggest Week for Consumer Spending Insights
Monday (Aug 18): $PANW - Cybersecurity leader, AI momentum
Tuesday (Aug 19): $HD - Home improvement giant, consumer health check
Wednesday (Aug 20): $TGT, $LOW, $TJX - Retail trifecta, tariff impact focus
Thursday (Aug 21): $WMT - The ultimate consumer bellwether
BULLISH SETUP: Analysts expect WMT to show "sustained top-line momentum" despite tougher comparables, with steady consumer demand despite tariff concerns
🏗️ HOMEBUILDER MOMENTUM CONTINUES
Warren Buffett disclosed $1.8 billion investments in Nucor, D.R. Horton, and Lennar, signaling confidence in:
$DHI - D.R. Horton (Buffett holding)
$LEN - Lennar (Buffett holding)
$NUE - Nucor steel (Buffett holding)
$NAIL - Homebuilder ETF for broad exposure
CATALYST: Rate cut expectations boosting housing outlook
🔴 BEARISH SECTORS & RISK AREAS
💻 TECH VULNERABILITY
Applied Materials led chipmaker losses on disappointing outlook, while PPI inflation data showed 0.9% M/M vs 0.2% expected
RISK PLAYS:
$AMAT - Already showing weakness, more downside likely
$SMH - Semiconductor ETF showing relative weakness
$QQQ - Tech-heavy Nasdaq vulnerable to rate concerns
🛡️ DEFENSE SECTOR PRESSURE
Peace talks progress could trigger sector rotation away from:
$LMT - Lockheed Martin (Ukraine weapons supplier)
$RTX - Raytheon Technologies
$ITA - Aerospace & Defense ETF
💰 CRYPTO MARKET BREAKDOWN & OPPORTUNITIES
📉 ETH LIQUIDATION CASCADE
Ethereum dropped below $4,300 with $100 million in crypto longs liquidated in past 60 minutes. Asian selling pressure dominated overnight session.
KEY LEVELS:
$BTC: Support at $115,500, resistance at $120,000
$ETH: Critical support at $4,200, resistance at $4,450
🏢 CORPORATE BITCOIN ACCUMULATION
Metaplanet bought additional 775 BTC worth $93 million, now holding 18,888 BTC worth $2.2 billion
CRYPTO PLAYS:
$MSTR - MicroStrategy (Bitcoin proxy)
$COIN - Coinbase (volatility = volume)
$BMNR - Bitmine (ETH accumulator, watch for support at $54)
🎯 KEY CATALYST TRADES FOR TOMORROW
🔥 HIGHEST CONVICTION PLAYS
PEACE DIVIDEND ROTATION
LONG: $IWM (Small caps benefit), $VGK (European exposure)
SHORT: $ITA (Defense ETF), Gold miners $GDX
RETAIL EARNINGS MOMENTUM
LONG: $WMT calls (earnings Thursday), $HD calls (earnings Tuesday)
HEDGE: $TGT puts (vulnerable to margin pressure)
CRYPTO OVERSOLD BOUNCE
LONG: $COIN (volatility play), $ETH at $4,200 support
SHORT: $BMNR if breaks $54 support
📊 S&P 500 FUTURES LEVELS & TECHNICAL
Current: 6,466 (pre-market) Key Support: 6,420 (20-day MA), 6,367 (key technical level) Resistance: 6,490 (all-time highs), 6,520 (extension target)
Markets coming off second straight positive week with Dow +1.7%, S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +0.8%
📅 ECONOMIC CALENDAR HIGHLIGHTS
THIS WEEK'S MARKET MOVERS
Monday: Trump-Zelensky summit, $PANW earnings Tuesday: Housing starts/permits, $HD earnings
Wednesday: FOMC MINUTES (July meeting), TGT/TGT/ TGT/LOW earnings Thursday: Jobless claims, PMI data, $WMT earnings Friday: POWELL JACKSON HOLE SPEECH, existing home sales
🎙️ JACKSON HOLE FOCUS
2025 Jackson Hole theme: "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy" - Powell's speech likely his last as Fed Chair
RATE CUT PROBABILITY: 85% chance of September cut per Fed futures
🚨 OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVERS
ASIA STRONG, CRYPTO WEAK
Japan Nikkei: Hit RECORD HIGH on weaker yen
China: Shanghai +0.43%, Hang Seng +0.61% on policy optimism
Crypto: $100M liquidations, ETH breaks key support
CURRENCY & COMMODITIES
Dollar: Mixed vs major pairs
Gold: Holding $2,500 despite peace optimism
Oil: Down 1.5% on peace talk hopes
🎯 FINAL TRADING GAMEPLAN
IMMEDIATE ACTION ITEMS:
WATCH UKRAINE HEADLINES: Any breakthrough could trigger massive sector rotation
POSITION FOR RETAIL EARNINGS: WMT/HD likely to beat, TGT vulnerable
CRYPTO OVERSOLD SETUP: ETH at critical support, bounce likely if holds $4,200
DEFENSIVE HEDGES: Consider defense sector shorts, gold weakness plays
RISK MANAGEMENT:
VIX at 15.09 - complacency levels but geopolitical catalyst could spike volatility
Position size carefully ahead of Powell speech Friday
Book profits quickly on peace rally - sentiment can shift fast
💎 WEEKLY OUTLOOK SUMMARY
BULLISH: Retail earnings, peace dividend, rate cut hopes, oversold crypto BEARISH: Defense contractors, inflation concerns, crypto momentum break WILDCARD: Ukraine peace progress could reshape entire market narrative
BOTTOM LINE: Historic geopolitical week with Powell's swan song - volatility and opportunity ahead!
May the Trading Gods be with you 🚀
DCG COMMAND CENTER | Your Edge in the Markets
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