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⚡ 5 THINGS TO KNOW RIGHT NOW — BEFORE THE BELL

1. 🌍 Iran Says No to Hormuz — Iran's top negotiator Ali Qalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz stays shut until the U.S. meets Tehran's interim-deal conditions, hours after President Trump confirmed he's rejecting an extension of the 60-day ceasefire that lapsed Monday . Futures are red across the board this morning.

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🌍 MACRO BACKDROP — THE BIG PICTURE

Monday's session closed with the S&P 500 down 40.70 points to 7,745.06 (-0.52%), a pullback from Friday's record-close run as Iran-Israel-U.S. tension re-escalated into the weekend. The catalyst: President Trump told Axios the U.S. is "only semi-negotiating" with Tehran and confirmed he is not extending the 60-day ceasefire memorandum that expired Monday, opting instead to lean on the U.S. naval blockade rather than a fresh round of airstrikes . Iran's response came in hard overnight: top negotiator Ali Qalibaf stated flatly that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Washington meets Tehran's interim conditions — a headline that landed just before 4 AM ET and is the single biggest overhang on this morning's tape.

Brent crude has been grinding in the high-$80s/low-$90s all week on this exact standoff, last trading near $89.28 with WTI around $81.74, both still elevated versus pre-conflict levels even as ship-tracking data shows Gulf producers quietly moving more barrels through Hormuz than headlines suggest. Layer on top of that: a broad U.S. macro data dump today (Housing Starts, Building Permits, Trade Price Indices, Industrial Production) and Home Depot's earnings before the bell — this is a headline-and-data session, not a drift session.

Zoom out and the bull case is intact — the S&P 500 is still up roughly 14.1% year-to-date through early August, and total returns since the November 2024 election sit above 37%, supported by resilient consumer spending and record corporate profit margins. But this morning's setup is a HEADLINE-DEPENDENT session: any de-escalation chatter out of Oman-Iran shuttle diplomacy on Hormuz shipping could snap futures back green fast, while any confirmation of the Houthi drone claim on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery would do the opposite. Trade the headline, not the narrative.

🗓️ TODAY'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR

🏦 SECTOR PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT

🟢 ADVANCING (overnight/pre-market strength):

🤖 STOCK MARKET NEWS — SECTOR BY SECTOR

🔥 HOT SECTOR #1: ENERGY 🛢️

Hormuz Risk Premium Reloads

Energy is the session's clearest beneficiary of the overnight escalation. With Iran refusing to reopen Hormuz absent U.S. concessions, and Brent holding the high-$80s, XLE sits flat on the day at $61.91 but well within its recent uptrend (52-week range $42.28–$63.46) — the sector remains the year's top performer even after Monday's tech-led equity bounce briefly stole the spotlight. XOM, at $161.60, sits mid-range between its $158.58 Monday low and $162.51 high, with Barclays trimming its price target to $177 from $182 while maintaining an Overweight rating — a modest valuation reset, not a thesis change.

🎯 XOM Trade Setup:

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